February 9, 2018
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Saparbeg Safarov | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 947 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Tyson Pedro's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tyson Pedro for the expected result. Had Saparbeg Safarov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Saparbeg Safarov | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Saparbeg Safarov | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:54 | 3:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 955 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +40 |
Tyson Pedro earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:54, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Saparbeg Safarov | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 907 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Tyson Pedro slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 52.2% vs 36.4% accuracy. Tyson Pedro capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Saparbeg Safarov | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:19 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 915 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tyson Pedro edged out Saparbeg Safarov on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Saparbeg Safarov | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 428 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 966 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +29 |
Tyson Pedro demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tyson Pedro capitalized on this activity level, while Saparbeg Safarov's 428-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Saparbeg Safarov | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Tyson Pedro started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Saparbeg Safarov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Saparbeg Safarov | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

