June 3, 2016
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sean Strickland | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 167 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Sean Strickland's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sean Strickland for the expected result. Had Tom Breese pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Sean Strickland | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 083 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sean Strickland | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 194 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sean Strickland receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Sean Strickland | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 73 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 207 | 153 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 264 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Sean Strickland edged the striking exchanges with 73 vs 62 significant strikes. Sean Strickland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sean Strickland | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 277 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Sean Strickland | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 104 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 178 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -20 |
Sean Strickland demonstrated solid activity levels with 104 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sean Strickland capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Breese's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sean Strickland | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 102 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -21 |
Sean Strickland extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Breese is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sean Strickland | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 083 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

