Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

November 10, 2023

UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1294
(-57)
Sergei Pavlovich
Winner: Tom Aspinall
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 1:09

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Sergei Pavlovich-57
Tom Aspinall+74
1362
(+74)
Tom Aspinall

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Sergei Pavlovich: -23Tom Aspinall: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricSergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Total UFC Fights88
Experience Gap00
Experience ELO1 3151 347
ELO Change-23+34
💡

What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (8 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Sergei Pavlovich: -22Tom Aspinall: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricSergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1041 136
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Sergei Pavlovich: -63Tom Aspinall: +150

Performance Statistics

MetricSergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish1:091:09
Win Type ELO1 6561 682
ELO Change-63+150
💡

What Happened

Tom Aspinall earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:09, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Sergei Pavlovich: -238Tom Aspinall: +238

Performance Statistics

MetricSergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Significant Strikes Landed110
Significant Strikes Attempted714
Total Strikes Landed110
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 4541 679
ELO Change-238+238
💡

What Happened

Tom Aspinall controlled the striking exchanges with 10 vs 1 significant strikes, 71.4% vs 14.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tom Aspinall capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Sergei Pavlovich: -37Tom Aspinall: +37

Performance Statistics

MetricSergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:02
Ground Strikes Landed03
Ground ELO1 2691 448
ELO Change-37+37
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Sergei Pavlovich: -24Tom Aspinall: +61

Performance Statistics

MetricSergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Days Since Last Fight204113
Activity ELO1 2531 280
ELO Change-24+61
💡

What Happened

Tom Aspinall demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tom Aspinall capitalized on this activity level, while Sergei Pavlovich's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Sergei Pavlovich: -24Tom Aspinall: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricSergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 1961 192
ELO Change-24+29
💡

What Happened

Tom Aspinall extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sergei Pavlovich is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Sergei Pavlovich: -22Tom Aspinall: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricSergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1041 135
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.