September 3, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Serghei Spivac | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 095 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Tom Aspinall overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Serghei Spivac.
| Metric | Serghei Spivac | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Serghei Spivac | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 157 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +72 |
Tom Aspinall earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Serghei Spivac | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 1 334 |
| ELO Change | -118 | +118 |
Tom Aspinall controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 0 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tom Aspinall capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Serghei Spivac | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 162 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Tom Aspinall landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Serghei Spivac | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 123 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Tom Aspinall demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tom Aspinall capitalized on this activity level, while Serghei Spivac's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Serghei Spivac | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +28 |
Tom Aspinall extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Serghei Spivac is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Serghei Spivac | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.