February 2, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 161 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -28 |
Sergio Moraes overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tim Means.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 095 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 227 | 1 242 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sergio Moraes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 87 | 129 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 192 | 274 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 89 | 136 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 134 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Tim Means controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (136 vs 89 total strikes), significant strike advantage (129 vs 87), 1 knockdown. However, since Tim Means lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sergio Moraes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 246 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Sergio Moraes did not secure a significant ground advantage against Tim Means on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 184 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -27 |
Sergio Moraes demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sergio Moraes capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Means's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 121 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Sergio Moraes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Means is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 095 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.