May 10, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 134 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +47 |
Warlley Alves overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Sergio Moraes.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 067 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:13 | 4:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 210 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +109 |
Warlley Alves gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 72 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 157 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 975 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -142 | +142 |
Warlley Alves dominated the striking exchanges with 72 vs 20 total strikes, 72 vs 20 significant strikes, 45.9% vs 32.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Warlley Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 296 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 165 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +33 |
Warlley Alves demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Warlley Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Sergio Moraes's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Warlley Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sergio Moraes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.