November 18, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Sergio Moraes's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sergio Moraes for the expected result. Had Zak Ottow pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 079 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 240 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sergio Moraes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 141 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 135 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Zak Ottow controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (44 vs 35). However, since Zak Ottow lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sergio Moraes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:04 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 253 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Sergio Moraes controlled Zak Ottow on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:04 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 50 |
| Activity ELO | 1 113 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Sergio Moraes demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sergio Moraes capitalized on this activity level, while Zak Ottow's 50-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 100 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Sergio Moraes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zak Ottow is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sergio Moraes | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 079 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.