September 21, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Simeon Thoresen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 124 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Seth Baczynski's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Seth Baczynski for the expected result. Had Simeon Thoresen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Simeon Thoresen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Simeon Thoresen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:10 | 4:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 204 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -34 |
Seth Baczynski earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:10, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Simeon Thoresen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 78 | 54 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 177 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Seth Baczynski controlled the striking exchanges with 19.2% vs 31.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Seth Baczynski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Simeon Thoresen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 205 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Simeon Thoresen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 1 141 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -16 |
Seth Baczynski demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Seth Baczynski capitalized on this activity level, while Simeon Thoresen's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Simeon Thoresen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 085 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -19 |
Seth Baczynski extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Simeon Thoresen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Simeon Thoresen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

