Seth Baczynski vs Thiago Alves

April 18, 2014

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1056
(-15)
Seth Baczynski
Winner: Thiago Alves
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Seth Baczynski-15
Thiago Alves+16
1234
(+16)
Thiago Alves

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Seth Baczynski: -21Thiago Alves: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricSeth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Total UFC Fights918
Experience Gap-99
Experience ELO1 0091 174
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves's 9-fight experience advantage (18 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Seth Baczynski pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Seth Baczynski: -17Thiago Alves: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricSeth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0241 125
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Seth Baczynski: -23Thiago Alves: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricSeth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1181 338
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Seth Baczynski: -7Thiago Alves: +7

Performance Statistics

MetricSeth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Significant Strikes Landed90116
Significant Strikes Attempted335236
Total Strikes Landed91120
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0291 378
ELO Change-7+7
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves controlled the striking exchanges with 120 vs 91 total strikes, 116 vs 90 significant strikes, 49.2% vs 26.9% accuracy. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Seth Baczynski: -15Thiago Alves: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricSeth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted81
Ground Control Time0:470:04
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 0781 212
ELO Change-15+15
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves did not secure a significant ground advantage against Seth Baczynski on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Seth Baczynski: -11Thiago Alves: +10

Performance Statistics

MetricSeth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Days Since Last Fight164778
Activity ELO1 1161 320
ELO Change-11+10
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves demonstrated extended layoff with 778 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Seth Baczynski's 164-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Seth Baczynski: -13Thiago Alves: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricSeth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0481 210
ELO Change-13+15
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Seth Baczynski is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Seth Baczynski: -18Thiago Alves: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricSeth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0231 114
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.