April 18, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Thiago Alves's 9-fight experience advantage (18 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Seth Baczynski pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 118 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Thiago Alves earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 90 | 116 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 335 | 236 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 91 | 120 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 029 | 1 378 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Thiago Alves controlled the striking exchanges with 120 vs 91 total strikes, 116 vs 90 significant strikes, 49.2% vs 26.9% accuracy. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 078 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Thiago Alves did not secure a significant ground advantage against Seth Baczynski on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 164 | 778 |
| Activity ELO | 1 116 | 1 320 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +10 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated extended layoff with 778 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Seth Baczynski's 164-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 048 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Seth Baczynski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Seth Baczynski | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

