February 1, 2025
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 149 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 047 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:12 | 3:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 211 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -26 |
Shamil Gaziev earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:12, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 34 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 180 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Thomas Petersen controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (19 vs 14), superior accuracy (55.9% vs 43.8%). However, since Thomas Petersen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Shamil Gaziev's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 137 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Shamil Gaziev demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Shamil Gaziev capitalized on this activity level, while Thomas Petersen's 197-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 059 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Shamil Gaziev extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thomas Petersen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 047 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

