Shane Roller vs TJ Grant

September 30, 2011

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

983
(-47)
Shane Roller
Winner: TJ Grant
Submission
Round 3 • 2:12

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Shane Roller-47
TJ Grant+50
1068
(+50)
TJ Grant

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Shane Roller: -34TJ Grant: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricShane RollerTJ Grant
Total UFC Fights37
Experience Gap-44
Experience ELO1 0341 069
ELO Change-34+34
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What Happened

TJ Grant's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding TJ Grant for the expected result. Had Shane Roller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Shane Roller: -21TJ Grant: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricShane RollerTJ Grant
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9851 022
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Shane Roller: -43TJ Grant: +65

Performance Statistics

MetricShane RollerTJ Grant
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish2:122:12
Win Type ELO1 0501 148
ELO Change-43+65
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What Happened

TJ Grant earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Shane Roller was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Shane Roller: -62TJ Grant: +62

Performance Statistics

MetricShane RollerTJ Grant
Significant Strikes Landed1024
Significant Strikes Attempted6064
Total Strikes Landed1164
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9811 073
ELO Change-62+62
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What Happened

TJ Grant dominated the striking exchanges with 64 vs 11 total strikes, 24 vs 10 significant strikes, 37.5% vs 16.7% accuracy. TJ Grant capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Shane Roller: -153TJ Grant: +153

Performance Statistics

MetricShane RollerTJ Grant
Takedowns Landed12
Takedowns Attempted32
Ground Control Time2:454:58
Ground Strikes Landed05
Ground ELO8411 113
ELO Change-153+153
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What Happened

TJ Grant dominated Shane Roller on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 4:58 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Shane Roller: -19TJ Grant: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricShane RollerTJ Grant
Days Since Last Fight91294
Activity ELO9981 064
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

TJ Grant demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, TJ Grant capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Roller's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Shane Roller: -21TJ Grant: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricShane RollerTJ Grant
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9901 031
ELO Change-21+23
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What Happened

TJ Grant started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Roller is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Shane Roller: -21TJ Grant: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricShane RollerTJ Grant
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9851 022
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.