September 30, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Shane Roller | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 034 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
TJ Grant's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding TJ Grant for the expected result. Had Shane Roller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Shane Roller | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Shane Roller | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:12 | 2:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 050 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +65 |
TJ Grant earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Shane Roller was submitted.
| Metric | Shane Roller | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 981 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
TJ Grant dominated the striking exchanges with 64 vs 11 total strikes, 24 vs 10 significant strikes, 37.5% vs 16.7% accuracy. TJ Grant capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Shane Roller | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:45 | 4:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 841 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -153 | +153 |
TJ Grant dominated Shane Roller on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 4:58 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Shane Roller | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 998 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
TJ Grant demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, TJ Grant capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Roller's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Shane Roller | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
TJ Grant started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Roller is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Shane Roller | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

