October 24, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Shannon Gugerty | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 992 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Spencer Fisher's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Spencer Fisher for the expected result. Had Shannon Gugerty pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Shannon Gugerty | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Shannon Gugerty | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:56 | 3:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 039 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +45 |
Spencer Fisher earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:56, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Shannon Gugerty was submitted.
| Metric | Shannon Gugerty | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 54 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 016 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Spencer Fisher controlled the striking exchanges with 76 vs 54 total strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Spencer Fisher capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Shannon Gugerty | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:19 | 2:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 077 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Spencer Fisher edged out Shannon Gugerty on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:48 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Shannon Gugerty | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +29 |
Spencer Fisher demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Spencer Fisher capitalized on this activity level, while Shannon Gugerty's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Shannon Gugerty | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Spencer Fisher extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shannon Gugerty is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Shannon Gugerty | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

