October 2, 2005
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Spencer Fisher | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Spencer Fisher | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Spencer Fisher | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:43 | 4:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 065 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -42 |
Spencer Fisher earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:43, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Thiago Alves was submitted.
| Metric | Spencer Fisher | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 36 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Thiago Alves controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (84 vs 22 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (19 vs 13). However, since Thiago Alves lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Spencer Fisher's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Spencer Fisher | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:15 | 6:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 055 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Spencer Fisher controlled Thiago Alves on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:15 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Spencer Fisher | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Spencer Fisher demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Spencer Fisher capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Alves's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Spencer Fisher | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Spencer Fisher started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Spencer Fisher | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.