September 28, 2012
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Stefan Struve | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 174 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Stefan Struve's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Stipe Miocic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Stefan Struve | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 115 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Stefan Struve | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:50 | 3:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 398 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -27 |
Stefan Struve gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Stefan Struve | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 128 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 227 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Stefan Struve edged the striking exchanges with 57 vs 48 significant strikes. Stefan Struve capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Stefan Struve | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 174 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Stefan Struve | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 278 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -13 |
Stefan Struve demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Stipe Miocic's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Stefan Struve | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 145 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -18 |
Stefan Struve extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stipe Miocic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Stefan Struve | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 115 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

