November 1, 2019
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Stephen Thompson | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 259 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Stephen Thompson's 2-fight experience advantage (15 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stephen Thompson for the expected result. Had Vicente Luque pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Stephen Thompson | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 130 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Stephen Thompson | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 496 | 1 421 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Stephen Thompson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Stephen Thompson | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 138 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 242 | 175 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 138 | 77 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 448 | 1 352 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -81 |
Stephen Thompson dominated the striking exchanges with 138 vs 77 total strikes, 138 vs 77 significant strikes, 57.0% vs 44.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Stephen Thompson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Stephen Thompson | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 280 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Stephen Thompson landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Stephen Thompson | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 1 269 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -27 |
Stephen Thompson demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Stephen Thompson capitalized on this activity level, while Vicente Luque's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Stephen Thompson | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 222 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Stephen Thompson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Vicente Luque is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Stephen Thompson | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 119 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

