June 26, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Steve Bosse | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Thiago Santos's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Steve Bosse pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Steve Bosse | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Steve Bosse | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:29 | 0:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 973 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +78 |
Thiago Santos secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:29 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Steve Bosse | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 936 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 3 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Steve Bosse | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 982 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Steve Bosse | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +40 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Bosse's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Steve Bosse | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Thiago Santos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Bosse is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Steve Bosse | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

