May 11, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Sultan Aliev | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 986 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Warlley Alves's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Warlley Alves for the expected result. Had Sultan Aliev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Sultan Aliev | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Sultan Aliev | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 974 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Warlley Alves gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Sultan Aliev | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 934 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Warlley Alves controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 14 total strikes, 29 vs 12 significant strikes, 58.0% vs 42.9% accuracy. Warlley Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Sultan Aliev | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:07 | 3:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 064 | 1 304 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Warlley Alves did not secure a significant ground advantage against Sultan Aliev on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:24 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Sultan Aliev | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 511 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 989 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Warlley Alves demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Warlley Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Sultan Aliev's 511-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Sultan Aliev | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +20 |
Warlley Alves extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sultan Aliev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Sultan Aliev | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.