July 10, 2012
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | TJ Dillashaw | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 043 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | TJ Dillashaw | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | TJ Dillashaw | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:33 | 2:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 095 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -46 |
TJ Dillashaw earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:33, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | TJ Dillashaw | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 032 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Vaughan Lee controlled the striking through superior volume (20 vs 5 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (8 vs 3), superior accuracy (42.1% vs 18.8%). However, since Vaughan Lee lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. TJ Dillashaw's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | TJ Dillashaw | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:01 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 118 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
TJ Dillashaw controlled Vaughan Lee on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:01 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | TJ Dillashaw | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 137 |
| Activity ELO | 1 086 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -20 |
TJ Dillashaw demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, TJ Dillashaw capitalized on this activity level, while Vaughan Lee's 137-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | TJ Dillashaw | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
TJ Dillashaw extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Vaughan Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | TJ Dillashaw | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.