August 2, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Thales Leites | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 099 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Thales Leites's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Tom Watson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 068 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 227 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Thales Leites earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 198 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Thales Leites dominated the striking exchanges with 98 vs 36 total strikes, 51 vs 33 significant strikes. Thales Leites capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:03 | 1:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 240 | 935 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Thales Leites dominated Tom Watson on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:03 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 456 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 154 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -14 |
Thales Leites demonstrated extended layoff with 1456 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Watson's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Thales Leites started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Watson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

