April 10, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Thales Leites | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 162 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Thales Leites's 8-fight experience advantage (11 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Trevor Smith pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 105 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:45 | 0:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 318 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -14 |
Thales Leites secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:45 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 275 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Thales Leites controlled the striking exchanges with 62.5% vs 30.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thales Leites capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 343 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 146 | 86 |
| Activity ELO | 1 231 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -11 |
Thales Leites demonstrated solid activity levels with 146 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Trevor Smith's 86-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 141 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -14 |
Thales Leites extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Trevor Smith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Thales Leites | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 098 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

