December 7, 2024
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Themba Gorimbo | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | -16 | 16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 120 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Vicente Luque's 16-fight experience advantage (22 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vicente Luque for the expected result. Had Themba Gorimbo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Themba Gorimbo | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Themba Gorimbo | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:52 | 0:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 208 | 1 494 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +38 |
Vicente Luque locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:52 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Themba Gorimbo | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 237 | 1 244 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Themba Gorimbo controlled the striking through superior accuracy (55.6% vs 33.3%). However, since Themba Gorimbo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Vicente Luque's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Themba Gorimbo | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 189 | 1 361 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Themba Gorimbo | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 56 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 1 156 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +13 |
Vicente Luque demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Vicente Luque capitalized on this activity level, while Themba Gorimbo's 56-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Themba Gorimbo | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Vicente Luque started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Themba Gorimbo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Themba Gorimbo | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

