December 6, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Thiago Alves | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 27 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 896 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +29 |
Tim Means overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (20 vs 27 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Thiago Alves.
| Metric | Thiago Alves | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 031 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Thiago Alves | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 130 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +60 |
Tim Means earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Thiago Alves | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 051 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Tim Means controlled the striking exchanges with 23 vs 13 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tim Means capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Thiago Alves | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 928 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -101 | +101 |
Tim Means dominated Thiago Alves on the ground with 0:42 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Thiago Alves | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 209 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Tim Means demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Tim Means capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Alves's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Thiago Alves | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Tim Means started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Thiago Alves | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.