January 11, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Thiago Moises | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 136 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Thiago Moises's 7-fight experience advantage (14 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Moises for the expected result. Had Trey Ogden pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Thiago Moises | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 054 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Thiago Moises | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 213 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Thiago Moises earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Thiago Moises | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 94 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 75 | 117 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Trey Ogden controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (117 vs 75 total strikes). However, since Trey Ogden lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Moises's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Thiago Moises | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:30 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 33 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 204 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -77 |
Thiago Moises controlled Trey Ogden on the ground with 0 takedowns, 7:30 of control time, 33 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Thiago Moises | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 150 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Thiago Moises demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while Trey Ogden's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Thiago Moises | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 082 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Thiago Moises started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Trey Ogden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Thiago Moises | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 054 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.