July 15, 1999
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Tim Lajcik | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tsuyoshi Kohsaka for the expected result. Had Tim Lajcik pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Tim Lajcik | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Tim Lajcik | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 965 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +72 |
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Tim Lajcik | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 939 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 43 total strikes, 78.6% vs 38.7% accuracy. Tsuyoshi Kohsaka capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Tim Lajcik | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:00 | 1:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 983 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka did not secure a significant ground advantage against Tim Lajcik on the ground with 1:15 of control time, 7 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Tim Lajcik | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tsuyoshi Kohsaka capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Lajcik's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Tim Lajcik | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Lajcik is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Tim Lajcik | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.