May 17, 2024
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Tom Nolan | Victor Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 999 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Tom Nolan | Victor Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Tom Nolan | Victor Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:50 | 3:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 055 | 929 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -43 |
Tom Nolan earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:50, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Tom Nolan | Victor Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 959 | 836 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
Tom Nolan controlled the striking exchanges with 41 vs 20 total strikes, 33 vs 18 significant strikes, 51.6% vs 69.2% accuracy. Tom Nolan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Tom Nolan | Victor Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 982 | 908 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Tom Nolan edged out Victor Martinez on the ground with 4 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Tom Nolan | Victor Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 448 |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -21 |
Tom Nolan demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tom Nolan capitalized on this activity level, while Victor Martinez's 448-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Tom Nolan | Victor Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Tom Nolan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Victor Martinez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Tom Nolan | Victor Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

