Waylon Lowe vs Willamy Freire

January 21, 2011

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1039
(+32)
Waylon Lowe
Winner: Waylon Lowe
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Waylon Lowe+32
Willamy Freire-29
971
(-29)
Willamy Freire

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Waylon Lowe: +31Willamy Freire: -31

Performance Statistics

MetricWaylon LoweWillamy Freire
Total UFC Fights31
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 038969
ELO Change+31-31
💡

What Happened

Waylon Lowe's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Waylon Lowe for the expected result. Had Willamy Freire pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Waylon Lowe: +21Willamy Freire: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricWaylon LoweWillamy Freire
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 023979
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Waylon Lowe: +44Willamy Freire: -44

Performance Statistics

MetricWaylon LoweWillamy Freire
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 029956
ELO Change+44-44
💡

What Happened

Waylon Lowe earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Waylon Lowe: +24Willamy Freire: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricWaylon LoweWillamy Freire
Significant Strikes Landed1523
Significant Strikes Attempted2850
Total Strikes Landed3867
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO980976
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Willamy Freire controlled the striking through superior volume (67 vs 38 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (23 vs 15). However, since Willamy Freire lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Waylon Lowe's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Waylon Lowe: +52Willamy Freire: -52

Performance Statistics

MetricWaylon LoweWillamy Freire
Takedowns Landed41
Takedowns Attempted81
Ground Control Time9:371:28
Ground Strikes Landed314
Ground ELO1 115948
ELO Change+52-52
💡

What Happened

Waylon Lowe controlled Willamy Freire on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 9:37 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Waylon Lowe: +37Willamy Freire: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricWaylon LoweWillamy Freire
Days Since Last Fight120N/A
Activity ELO1 076981
ELO Change+37-19
💡

What Happened

Waylon Lowe demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Waylon Lowe capitalized on this activity level, while Willamy Freire's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Waylon Lowe: +25Willamy Freire: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricWaylon LoweWillamy Freire
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 030979
ELO Change+25-21
💡

What Happened

Waylon Lowe extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Willamy Freire is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Waylon Lowe: +21Willamy Freire: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricWaylon LoweWillamy Freire
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 023979
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.