January 21, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Waylon Lowe | Willamy Freire |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 038 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Waylon Lowe's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Waylon Lowe for the expected result. Had Willamy Freire pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Waylon Lowe | Willamy Freire |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Waylon Lowe | Willamy Freire |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 029 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Waylon Lowe earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Waylon Lowe | Willamy Freire |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 980 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Willamy Freire controlled the striking through superior volume (67 vs 38 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (23 vs 15). However, since Willamy Freire lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Waylon Lowe's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Waylon Lowe | Willamy Freire |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:37 | 1:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 115 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Waylon Lowe controlled Willamy Freire on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 9:37 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Waylon Lowe | Willamy Freire |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 076 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -19 |
Waylon Lowe demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Waylon Lowe capitalized on this activity level, while Willamy Freire's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Waylon Lowe | Willamy Freire |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Waylon Lowe extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Willamy Freire is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Waylon Lowe | Willamy Freire |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

